- Bitcoin trades near $61,500, marking an approximately 50% correction from its October 2025 peak near $126,000.
- Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, forecasts Bitcoin could fall to $55,000 before a cycle low forms between late August and October 2026.
- Gold has dropped below $4,000 per ounce (down 28% from its January 2025 peak of $5,600) and silver below $59 per ounce (more than 50% from records), ending the 2025 debasement trade narrative.
- Despite near-term pressure, 21Shares maintains a $100,000 year-end base case for Bitcoin, noting the drawdown follows familiar post-halving patterns but remains milder than prior cycles and holds above the $54,000 aggregate cost basis.
Bitcoin extended its recent pullback on June 24, 2026, trading in the $61,000-$62,500 range as a broad selloff hit digital assets alongside precious metals, bringing an apparent end to the debasement trade that defined much of 2025.
The move comes as markets adjust to expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. Growing anticipation of rate hikes rather than cuts has supported the U.S. dollar and pressured risk assets. Gold has now fallen below $4,000 per ounce after peaking at $5,600 in January 2025, while silver slipped beneath $59 per ounce from records near $120 — both assets posting steep losses that unwind the narrative of hedging against fiat dilution from fiscal deficits and debt.
In a note highlighted by CoinDesk, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen warned that Bitcoin could decline to $55,000 before finding a cycle bottom between late August and October 2026. Thielen cited a strengthening dollar as a historical headwind for BTC, alongside global liquidity trends and the macro calendar, which includes September and October Fed meetings, U.S. midterms, and November Treasury refinancing. “The implication is patience now, attention in late August,” Thielen said.
Seasonal patterns also factor in, with September historically weak for Bitcoin and liquidity often drying up during summer months. The current environment has left BTC testing levels near its long-term 200-week moving average around $62,800, with traders watching for further downside pressure if macro conditions deteriorate.
Not all outlooks are bearish on the medium term. In its mid-year crypto market report published June 24, The Block reported that 21Shares sees the pullback as consistent with historical post-halving patterns, though significantly milder than the 80%+ drawdowns of prior cycles. The firm reiterated its $100,000 year-end base case, highlighting that Bitcoin has remained above the aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000 and shown signs of stickier capital flows in ETP structures, pointing to a more mature market.
For investors and traders, the coming weeks will likely test short-term support while longer-term holders may view the resilience above key cost-basis levels as constructive. Key watchpoints include USD strength, Fed communications, and ETF flows amid ongoing liquidity concerns.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice of any kind. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
