- The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, matching forecasts, while core CPI increased 0.3% month over month.
- Bitcoin briefly traded as high as about $79,837 before settling near $77,800; ether moved above $2,500.
- Market pricing of a 25-basis-point hike at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting climbed into the mid-to-high 80% range after the print.
- Energy, including a 3.9% monthly rise in gasoline, accounted for a large share of the headline increase.
Bitcoin and ether rose Friday after the latest U.S. inflation report came in broadly in line with forecasts, leaving traders focused on next week’s Federal Reserve meeting rather than a surprise shift in the data.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the consumer price index increased 0.4% in August after a 0.1% rise in July. Over the 12 months ended in August, prices were up 3.4%, the same annual pace as in July. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.4% from a year earlier.
Energy did most of the work on the headline print. The energy index increased 2.1% in August, with gasoline up 3.9% and accounting for more than one-third of the monthly all-items gain, according to the same BLS release. Energy prices were 16.3% higher than a year earlier, and gasoline was up 27.4%. Food rose a more modest 0.1% on the month and 2.7% year over year.
Price action in crypto was sharp and two-sided. Bitcoin slid toward the mid-$76,000s in the first minute after the 8:30 a.m. ET release, then reversed, with Bitstamp data showing a spike to about $79,837 before the market faded back toward $77,800, according to Bitcoin.com News. That report put bitcoin’s market capitalization near $1.57 trillion and said the swings helped trigger more than $732 million in crypto liquidations, including about $424 million in short positions. Ether traded above $2,500.
Rate markets treated the report as confirmation that policymakers still have an inflation problem, not as a reason to reprice the path in isolation. After the print, the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting jumped to nearly 90% from about 70% on Thursday, CBS News reported, citing CME FedWatch. That would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% if officials deliver a quarter-point move.
Not every desk read the package as a clean hawkish shock. Bitget analyst Lewis Huang pointed to the split between energy-driven headline inflation and a still-easing core trend. “That gives the Fed some room to look through the headline increase, leaving the September decision dependent on the broader balance of inflation, labor-market and financial conditions,” Huang said in comments carried by Crowdfund Insider. “For crypto, the print provides less of a directional catalyst from rates. Bitcoin holding above $76,270 would suggest that underlying demand remains resilient despite uncertainty around the rate path.”
Traders now turn to the Sept. 15–16 FOMC gathering as the next hard catalyst. A hold would leave the post-CPI rebound intact if bitcoin can defend the mid-$76,000 area. A hike would test whether Friday’s squeeze was only a positioning flush after a data print that, on the official numbers, did little to resolve the Fed’s inflation-versus-growth trade-off.
