- Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin has found its local trough and is now positioned for a move toward $150,000 by year-end 2026.
- The firm points to resilient institutional demand and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which have absorbed over $56 billion to date.
- MicroStrategy (Strategy) continues to act as a “central bank of last resort” for Bitcoin, now holding approximately 3.6% of the total circulating supply.
Bernstein’s research and brokerage unit has declared that the worst of Bitcoin’s recent price correction is likely over, sticking firmly to its ambitious $150,000 price target for the end of 2026. In a Tuesday note to investors, lead analyst Gautam Chhugani argued that the market has successfully weathered geopolitical volatility and heavy liquidations without the structural collapses—such as exchange failures or lender bankruptcies—that characterized previous bear cycles.
The analysts highlighted that the recent 19% drawdown from peaks near $125,000 represents one of the mildest corrections in Bitcoin’s history, signaling a maturing asset class. This stability is largely attributed to the “structural floor” created by spot Bitcoin ETFs and aggressive corporate treasury buying. According to Bernstein, U.S.-based ETFs have seen a resurgence in momentum, with net inflows surpassing $2 billion over four consecutive weeks in March alone.
The Role of Corporate Treasuries
A central pillar of Bernstein’s bullish thesis is the continued expansion of MicroStrategy, which the firm now likens to a “Bitcoin central bank of last resort.” The company recently boosted its holdings to 762,099 BTC, representing roughly 3.6% of the total 21 million supply. Bernstein noted that MicroStrategy’s ability to raise $7.3 billion year-to-date through equity and innovative preferred instruments (STRC) demonstrates a “pressure-tested” balance sheet that provides high-beta exposure to Bitcoin’s upside.
“We believe Bitcoin has found its trough and is now heading higher. We retain $150,000 as our 2026 year-end expected price for Bitcoin,” wrote Gautam Chhugani, adding that fears of forced liquidations on corporate balance sheets remain misplaced.
The report also emphasized a shift in investor demographics. With roughly 60% of Bitcoin supply remaining inactive for over a year and institutional vehicles now controlling 14% of the total supply, the market is becoming less dependent on speculative retail capital. While some analysts warn of a “choppy path” ahead due to macroeconomic crosswinds and oil price inflation, Bernstein maintains that the supply squeeze—driven by institutions and corporate entities—is the primary catalyst for the next leg of the rally.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice of any kind. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
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