Senate faces 60-vote Clarity Act test as banks and state AGs resist final draft

• The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote Tuesday afternoon on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a step that requires 60 votes.
• Republicans released a final substitute they say includes 126 changes requested by Democrats, plus ethics limits President Donald Trump agreed to accept.
• A bipartisan group of 18 attorneys general and eight banking trade groups urged senators to reject or tighten the current text.
• Prediction markets implied about a 19% chance the bill is signed into law in 2026. Bitcoin slipped to about $77,400 after trading as high as $79,530 overnight.

The U.S. Senate is set to take its first floor vote on comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation on Tuesday, a 60-vote cloture test on whether to proceed to H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Invoking cloture would only open debate. Final passage, House action on any Senate substitute, and a presidential signature would still be required.

Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Cynthia Lummis, Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman and Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott released a final draft they said reflects more than a year of talks and 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats. If cloture is invoked Tuesday afternoon, Republicans plan to offer that text as an amendment in the nature of a substitute.

The substitute adds ethics rules that, sponsors say, track most of the Tillis-Gallego proposal and give state attorneys general a role in enforcement. Covered officials and spouses would be barred from issuing or sponsoring digital assets and from holding significant financial interests in token issuers, with divestment or a qualified blind trust required. “After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Lummis said. “President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions.”

White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt, speaking Monday at a Solana Policy Institute event, called the text the “best and final offer” and said Trump had “blessed” the ethics language. “Whether or not we get 60 votes is going to be a political calculation, not a policy calculation because this truly is a bipartisan bill that is worthy of support,” Witt said. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats or independents would need to join a unified GOP conference.

Opposition has not receded. New York Attorney General Letitia James led a bipartisan coalition of 17 other attorneys general arguing the bill could curb state fraud cases. “As written, the Clarity Act would embolden scammers and potentially strip attorneys general of our authority to protect our states’ investors and their wallets,” James said. Eight banking groups, including the American Bankers Association, told leaders John Thune and Charles Schumer that stablecoin-reward language still leaves loopholes and that a Treasury “circuit breaker” that fires only after deposit flight “is not a safeguard at all,” their Sept. 14 letter said.

Senate Democrats sent a late-Monday counteroffer focused on ethics enforcement, including whether state attorneys general can sue the president. A Polymarket contract on enactment by Dec. 31 implied about a 19% probability, with more than $17 million in volume. Bitcoin traded near $77,400 in European hours Tuesday, down about 3% from an overnight high of $79,530, according to CoinDesk data. Even a successful cloture vote would leave little calendar room before midterms.