One Year After the 4th Halving

• Bitcoin’s price rose 50% one year after the 4th halving.
• Marking the weakest post-halving performance historically.
• The modest gain is likely due to a bearish macroeconomic environment, including high inflation and rising interest rates.
• Recent data shows Bitcoin recovered above $94,000 in April 2025, with a 14% monthly increase.
• Future trends may depend on institutional adoption and regulatory changes, with mixed analyst predictions.

We’re marking the one-year anniversary of Bitcoin’s 4th halving, which occurred on April 20, 2024. Halvings, happening roughly every four years, halve the mining reward, reducing new Bitcoin supply and historically triggering price rallies due to scarcity.

This cycle, however, has diverged from the norm, prompting a deep dive into Bitcoin’s price evolution, the macroeconomic landscape, and recent trends.

Detailed Price Evolution Since the 4th Halving

To quantify Bitcoin’s performance, let’s start with the numbers. The halving day, Bitcoin’s price was $64,994.44, as per historical data from StatMuse Money. Today, it’s trading at $95,373.76. This gives us a percentage increase of:

This 46.75% gain is notably the smallest post-halving increase in Bitcoin’s history, as evidenced by comparing it to previous cycles.

Analyzing the Modest Performance: Macroeconomic and Market Factors

The subdued performance is likely tied to a bearish macroeconomic backdrop, as suggested by multiple sources.

Inflation and Interest Rates

Central banks globally have tightened monetary policy, with interest rates rising to combat inflation. This makes traditional investments like bonds more attractive, reducing speculative demand for Bitcoin. Forbes notes a historical correlation with M2 suggesting Bitcoin may depreciate as monetary conditions tighten.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, have added to market uncertainty, making investors cautious about volatile assets.

Regulatory Scrutiny

While the January 2024 approval of Bitcoin ETFs brought institutional interest, ongoing regulatory debates create uncertainty.

Market Maturity

Bitcoin’s increased institutional participation, with ETFs now holding nearly $110 billion in assets, suggests a more mature market, potentially leading to slower, more stable price movements compared to earlier, more volatile cycles.