- Polymarket odds for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act to pass by year-end 2026 have fallen to a record low of 32% as Senate negotiations stall over ethics provisions.
- The bill seeks to clarify SEC and CFTC jurisdiction over digital assets and has advanced through key Senate committees but requires broader Democratic support.
- Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger warned against letting ethics disputes derail the legislation’s core reforms on market structure.
- With the August recess approaching, time is running short for passage in 2026 amid demands for ethics provisions linked to officials’ crypto holdings.
Prediction market participants have sharply lowered their bets on the passage of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act by the end of 2026, with odds dropping to a record low of 32% as of July 17. The move reflects mounting uncertainty in Senate negotiations over ethics provisions that Democrats insist are necessary for their support of the landmark crypto market structure legislation.
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, also known as the CLARITY Act, would draw clearer lines between securities-like tokens regulated by the SEC and digital commodities primarily overseen by the CFTC. It passed the House one year ago and cleared the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees with backing from two Democrats. However, full Senate approval hinges on resolving partisan differences, particularly around ethics rules for public officials involved in crypto.
According to Cointelegraph reporting, Senate Democrats have publicly conditioned their votes on strong ethics language, pointing to potential conflicts including President Donald Trump’s disclosed $1.4 billion in earnings from crypto ventures. The Blockchain Association has been actively engaged in discussions as the bill progressed through committees.
Industry leaders are urging quick compromise. In comments reported by Cointelegraph, Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger said: “For my members and what we are advocating for on the Hill… look, whatever you decide on ethics, that’s really not our concern. That is politics. That’s Congress. That’s elected officials. But please don’t let it kill all the hard work that we put in the rest of the bill.” She described ethics as the “big elephant in the room” while emphasizing the need to preserve the bill’s substantive reforms.
A recent White House meeting with Republican senators aimed at advancing the bill yielded no immediate public update. Other prediction platforms like Kalshi had shown a 75.1% probability of a Senate floor vote before the August recess as of mid-July, but momentum appears to have cooled. Lawmakers face a narrowing window before recess and limited session time afterward.
The prolonged legislative uncertainty adds to regulatory overhang for crypto markets, potentially delaying institutional inflows and onshore innovation. Supporters contend that statutory clarity would reduce reliance on enforcement actions, attract capital, and establish durable rules. Detractors stress the importance of ethics safeguards to maintain public trust and prevent undue influence in the emerging sector.
As developments unfold in the coming days, investors and traders will watch for any breakthrough on ethics language or scheduling of floor consideration that could shift the outlook for U.S. crypto policy.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute advice of any kind. Readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
