Bitcoin Surges Past $116K on Sticky Inflation and Weakening Jobs Data

Bitcoin (BTC) pushed past $116,000 on Friday, marking a roughly 4% gain over the past week amid mixed U.S. economic signals. The cryptocurrency approached a key CME futures gap near $117,300, with spot prices hitting $116,800 on exchanges like Bitstamp.

Headline consumer price index (CPI) data released Thursday showed a 0.4% month-over-month increase, surpassing the 0.3% forecast and underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported August nonfarm payrolls added just 22,000 jobs, with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% and initial jobless claims surging to 263,000—the highest since October 2021.

A historic downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs for the year ended March further highlighted labor market cracks, prompting traders to price in a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17 meeting, with three cuts anticipated by year-end. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) held multiyear support but showed signs of weakness, while 10-year Treasury yields dipped below 4%, creating favorable tailwinds for risk assets like bitcoin.

Analysts view the price action as constructive, with BTC forming higher lows since its September bottom at $107,500. The short-term holder realized price reached a record $109,668, signaling reduced selling pressure, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $2.3 billion in net inflows over the five days through September 12.

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, argued that aggressive fiscal policy under a potential Trump administration could extend the crypto bull market into 2026, with bitcoin outperforming traditional assets amid currency debasement. However, some caution that the filled CME gap could act as resistance, potentially pulling prices back toward monthly lows under $108,000 if momentum fades.

Market sentiment remains tilted bullish, with predictions of new all-time highs in two to three weeks driven by institutional demand and rate cut certainty. Traders are monitoring upcoming data for confirmation, as softer jobs and sticky inflation reinforce bitcoin’s role as an inflation hedge.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, or financial advice. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.